Break For Some Madness...

Time to take a break from all this politics and talk about another passion of mine, college basketball.

I'll preface this entry by letting all readers know that I graduated from HOLY CROSS in 2003, so some bias may sneak in to the analysis...but that's to be expected. Needless to say I'm very excited about our chances and you'll see it below.

I'll try to highlight what I think could be key matchups in each game, plus pick a winner. You'll be able to see every pick.

First, though, a discussion of the "bubble teams."

The last 4 teams to get into the field of 65 were (presumably) Stanford, Illinois, Old Dominion, and Arkansas. The first four teams out were, in my opinion (and in this order): Drexel, Syracuse, Air Force, and Florida State. I'd have to say the next four were Missouri State, Kansas State, West Virginia, and then any number of teams (Clemson, Bradley, Ok St. etc).

I think the committee pretty much botched these last few spots. Here are the profiles of the last 4 teams.

Stanford (6th in Pac 10: 18-12, 10-8)
GOOD WINS: Texas Tech, at Fresno St., at Virginia, Washington St., USC, UCLA, Oregon (by 19)
BAD WINS: San Jose St., Denver, UC Davis, and Northwestern - programs that combined for 27 wins...14 schools in the field have at least that many.
BAD LOSSES: bubble team Air Force (by 34), Santa Clara (by 16), Cal, Washington
RPI: 63 - worst of the At Large field

Illinois (4th in Big 10: 23-11, 9-7)
GOOD WINS: tournament teams Jackson St., Miami (OH), Belmont, Florida A&M (this is STRETCHING their non-conference schedule), Michigan St., Indiana (2)
BAD WINS: nobody's really terrible, except Savannah St., that I can see
BAD LOSSES: most damaging loss was Purdue (by 17)...after that, to Michigan
RPI: 29

Old Dominion (2nd in CAA: 24-8, 15-3)
GOOD WINS: at Georgetown (by 13), Drexel (2, once by 27), at Toledo (BracketBusters), VCU

BAD WINS: naturally, the bottom feeders of their conference, plus SC St. and Richmond
BAD LOSSES: at James Madison, at Va Tech (by 17), George Mason (by 16)
RPI: 40

Arkansas (4th in SEC West: 21-13, 7-9)
GOOD WINS: at Southern Illinois, West Virginia, Oral Roberts, Alabama (by 27), Vanderbilt (2, once by 15)
BAD WINS: Missouri-Kansas City, SE MO St., La Tech, Stephen F. Austin...etc, etc, etc...
BAD LOSSES: at Missouri (by 22), Texas Tech (by 16), at Mississippi St. (by 24), Auburn, South Carolina
RPI: 35 (somehow, their Strength of Schedule is 10 - apparently that's just a formula I don't understand)

Clearly, Arkansas has the worst profile of the 4. I was really shocked to see Stanford get in with that crazy RPI, but they do have a lot of good wins despite the bad losses. So I think I would've bumped Arkansas and Old Dominion out, replacing them with Drexel and Syracuse. Syracuse also beat Georgetown and their conference play was much tougher than Old Dominion's, so I give them the nod. And Drexel gets the nod over Arkansas as the last team in because of their 13 road wins, including beating Syracuse, Villanova, and Creighton.

Time for the brackets!

MIDWEST REGION:

ROUND 1

Florida v. Jackson St.: Everyone talks about Florida's big men, but the two key players for me on this team are Corey Brewer and Taurean Green. If they play well during the tournament, Florida should be fine.
PICK - Florida

Arizona v. Purdue: The question in this game will be which Arizona team will show up - the one ranked preseason #10, or the one that didn't show up for games against UNC, UCLA, and Oregon. This Arizona team has the ability to hurt people (see: UNLV, Louisville, Memphis) and should get it done early against a Purdue team that has a tendency to blow out or be blown out (check out the crazy scores of most of their games). Despite the ability of Carl Landry, Arizona's too talented to let a Purdue squad many thought were closer to the bubble get close to them. I predict a rout.
PICK - Arizona

Butler v. Old Dominion: It's always tough for a team like Old Dominion trying to prove they "belong" in the tournament - but it becomes tougher when you go against a squad who knows exactly how you feel. Butler started off the season beating Notre Dame, Indiana, Illinois, Tennessee and Gonzaga within the span of 11 days. They don't need to prove anything to anyone anymore. If A.J. Graves can get his act together and play like he did during most of the season, it's Butler in a blowout.
PICK - Butler

Maryland v. Davidson: The key throughout the tournament for Maryland will be the play of their big men: James Gist, Ekene Ibewke, and Bambale Osby. If they can neutralize big men from other teams, combined with the leadership of senior backcourt mates D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones, this team could be very, very dangerous. Many people may like Davidson in a spoiler role because of their gaudy record and no bad losses on the season, but Davidson really can't defend anybody. Maryland will pull away in this one after a tight first half.
PICK - Maryland

Notre Dame v. Winthrop: Talk about a team with no bad losses - Winthrop lost to UNC, Maryland, Wisconsin (in OT), and Texas A&M. THAT'S IT. Problem is, their best wins were Mississippi St. and Missouri St. (BracketBusters - which did likely end Missouri St.'s chance at a bid) Notre Dame beat Maryland, Villanova, and Marquette during the season, and got better as the season moved along. This could be the highest scoring game of the tournament, but I just like Notre Dame's offense better. I feel like this was a bad matchup for Winthrop, as Notre Dame has the ability to outscore just about anyone.
PICK - Notre Dame

Oregon v. Miami (OH): Are you kidding me?
PICK - Oregon

UNLV v. Georgia Tech: The committee gave us a great matchup here. UNLV flew under the radar most of the season despite their gaudy RPI (which now sits at 10, ahead of Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, and a slew of other teams OUTSIDE the Big 12) and beat Nevada, Texas Tech, Air Force, and BYU. Plus their 3 guard lineup might be Georgia Tech's worst nightmare, considering Tech's strengths are quickness and depth (Paul Hewitt will go at least 10 deep in the first ten minutes of the game). This has the makings of an absolute classic, but if Tech can play a lick of defense, I think they'll eke it out.
PICK - Georgia Tech

Wisconsin v. Texas A&M/Corpus Christi: Wisconsin desperately needed an easy first rounder and they got it.
PICK - Wisconsin

ROUND 2

Florida v. Arizona: These teams are much more similar than people may think. Florida wasn't tested in the SEC tournament and now everyone says they're "back" after a February swoon. Both these teams have looked downright awful and absolutely spectacular this season...for that reason, I'm going with the huge upset. I think Shakur and Radenovic, as seniors, will finally show the fire that Lute Olson has been waiting for for four years. Freshman J.P. Hill will also have to come up huge to go against Florida's bigs.
PICK - Arizona

Butler v. Maryland: Maryland's bigs will have to get out on the perimeter to defend Butler's bigger shooters, and they have the athleticism to do so.
PICK - Maryland

Notre Dame v. Oregon: Another high scoring affair. This one's a nail biter where Aaron Brooks, maybe the "third" most clutch player in the country (Acie Law, Drew Neitzel) wins it for them.
PICK - Oregon

Georgia Tech v. Wisconsin: Because of their depth, Tech should be able to run Wisconsin off the court. The loss of Brian Butch kills the Badgers, plus Taylor and Flowers can't be expected to carry the burden against all that quickness of the Yellow Jackets. I predict Alando Tucker has an off-night and falls out of contention for player of the year.
PICK - Georgia Tech

SWEET 16

Arizona v. Maryland: Despite time to rest, Arizona will have done enough by beating Florida to call the year a success. They will revert to form and Maryland will throttle them.
PICK - Maryland

Oregon v. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech will have to score more points in this game to beat the Ducks than they will have to against UNLV and Wisconsin. They won't have the punch to get it done.
PICK - Oregon

ELITE 8

Maryland v. Oregon: Oregon will have all sorts of problems with Maryland's size and will have to rely exclusively on outside shooting to win. One only needs to look at the 19 point loss to Stanford as an indication that Oregon has trouble with size. Maryland can move on if Strawberry and Jones can neutralize Brooks and company.
PICK - Maryland

WEST REGION

ROUND 1

Kansas v. Niagra: Niagra will win the playoff game. Their reward? Losing to Kansas by 54.
PICK - Kansas

Kentucky v. Villanova: Considering that Tubby Smith's job no longer is in jeopardy, I just get the feeling that his Wildcats will fold in this one. Randolph Morris looks bored half the time and Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford have to be the two streakiest players in the country. I just don't think this Kentucky team is that good despite their RPI, and Villanova has the size with Curtis Sumpter and the quickness with Scottie Reynolds to win this one. It may be close for a bit but Villanova should win fairly handily.
PICK - Villanova

Virginia Tech v. Illinois: For a team that's offensively challenged, Virginia Tech is a bad draw for the Fighting Illini. Warren Carter and Shaun Pruitt are nice enough players, but this team can go through some scoring droughts (41 total points v. Wisconsin, 44 v. Ohio St., 47 v. Purdue, 48 v. N'Western in a win) and Tech has the athleticism to blow them out.
PICK - Virginia Tech

Southern Illinois v. Holy Cross: The Crusaders could not have asked for a better matchup. Southern Illinois' slow-down style mimics Holy Cross', so this game will likely end up in the 50's. The Salukis have won many games by controlling tempo, but if the game can go a bit quicker (like their matchup with Indiana) than their comfort zone, they can be beaten. With Torey Thomas and Keith Simmons, Holy Cross has the ability to do just that.
PICK - Holy Cross

Duke v. VCU: People are calling for an upset here, too. What people overlook about Duke, however, is that they beat who they are supposed to beat. Bad news is, they are coming in off their second losing streak of at least three games this year. But Gerald Henderson is back, and if Coach K can get some production out of his bench, it should be business as usual.
PICK - Duke

Pittsburgh v. Wright State: Don't I have to pick against Pitt after having them in my Final Four last year, only to see them lose to Bradley - the LAST team to get in?
Yes.
I don't know anything about Wright State other than they beat Butler twice. Pitt showed it has trouble scoring yet again this year in the finale against G'Town. Everyone's looking forward to a Ben Howland reunion party in the Sweet 16. It ain't gonna happen.
PICK - Wright State

Indiana v. Gonzaga: This game really doesn't matter because the winner will get thrashed by UCLA in the second round. Logic would say go for the upset and hope to grab the points with the Zags, but I think D.J. White will be too much for the Zags to handle. Despite beating UNC and Texas, these are not your father's Bulldgos.
PICK - Indiana

UCLA v. Weber St: I truly believe this UCLA team is the best team in the country. They have an emerging star at the point in Darren Collison, a first team All-American in Aaron Afflalo, and enough outside shooting and inside size to win the whole thing. Weber St. will be no problem.
PICK - UCLA

ROUND 2:

Kansas v. Villanova: I think Kansas can get by Villanova on talent alone. This Villanova team is not as good as last year's, plus Kansas will (or, should) have a chip on its shoulder after some early flameouts the last couple years (Bradley, Bucknell). Villanova is basically a weaker version of Kansas, with good depth and quick players, but they can't score like Kansas can. It will be close for a while but Kansas should pull away from what amounts to an inferior team.
PICK - Kansas

Virginia Tech v. Holy Cross: The Crusaders can get it done against the Hokies provided that the Hokies team that shows up is the one that lost to Marshall, not the one that beat UNC twice.
I'm betting on the former.
PICK - Holy Cross

Duke v. Wright State: Again, Duke has a history of beating teams it should beat. They welcome the chance to play Wright State rather than bang around with Pitt for 40 minutes. The new opponent will do them well.
PICK - Duke

Indiana v. UCLA: Despite the fact that Indiana is playing better team defense, UCLA will have too much firepower. Kelvin Sampson's first year in Bloomington will remind people of Mike Davis.
PICK - UCLA

SWEET 16:

Kansas v. Holy Cross: This is where the slipper comes off. Holy Cross puts forth a game effort, but Brandon Rush and Co. will just have too much talent.
PICK - Kansas

Duke v. UCLA: Edge to UCLA off the bat for the game being in San Jose. After winning two fairly routine games, Duke will have its hands full in this one. It's relative lack of depth will be exposed and Josh McRoberts won't be able to carry the load as a sophomore. UCLA will pull away in this one.
PICK - UCLA

ELITE 8:

Kansas v. UCLA: The de facto national championship, as far as I'm concerned. Kansas' resiliency will shine through, but their lack of a go-to player may come to hurt them here as Aaron Afflalo steps it up.
PICK - UCLA

EAST REGION

ROUND 1:

UNC v. Eastern Kentucky: UNC starts its title drive with Eastern Kentucky. It's a good thing, because it gets much tougher. Enjoy it while you can.
PICK - UNC

Marquette v. Michigan State: Arguably the toughest first round match of the whole tournament. Marquette seems underseeded and when Dominic James isn't mired in his sophomore slump, the Golden Eagles can hang with anyone - just ask Texas Tech, Pitt, Duke, and Louisville. But James has hit a real bad shooting slump which started about 10 games ago and hasn't snapped out of it. If Travis Walton can lock him up, and they get enough scoring from Drew Neitzel and rapidly improving Raymar Morgan (remember the name), that should be enough for the Spartans to move on.
PICK - Michigan State

USC v. Arkansas: All I know is that somebody is going to blow out somebody in this game. Neither team is all that good, but Arkansas doesn't even deserve to be here. I'm going with the Trojans.
PICK - USC

Texas v. New Mexico State: People think Texas is infallible because of Kevin Durant, but they have some REALLY close wins that don't impress (St. John's by 1, LSU by 1, Arkansas by 4, Nebraska by 1, Baylor THREE TIMES, all 5 points or less)...of course, the bottom line is, Texas won those games. Look for a similar contest against a pesky Aggies team and watch all your friends sweat it out.
PICK - Texas

Vanderbilt v. George Washington: Despite an NIT profile (no other good wins other than Virginia Tech), George Washington is not a bad team. They come in winning 8 in a row and get good guard play with a deep rotation, led by Maureece Rice. Vanderbilt is likely the most overrated seed in the tournament (losing to FURMAN???) but they got lucky in that GW probably shouldn't have been an 11. Vanderbilt also plays a deep rotation and will have the best player on the floor in UVA transfer Derrick Byars, which should make the difference.
PICK - Vanderbilt

Washington State v. Oral Roberts: I wonder if Washington State is a young team which peaked too early. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 but didn't beat UCLA or Oregon, which, to me, really puts them third. Oral Roberts has the best player in the country you've never heard of in Caleb Green, plus another 2,000 point scorer in Ken Tutt. Can't two players carry you for one game in the Big Dance? They played pretty well last year against Memphis and are a better team this year.
PICK - Oral Roberts

Boston College v. Texas Tech: BC has lost 5 of 7 down the stretch, while Texas Tech got blown out in the Big 12 quarters. So who do you pick when neither team wants to win? BC lost to Vermont, Providence, Duquesne (!), Clemson by 20, and their last 3 losses have been blowouts. Texas Tech played a much tougher non-conference (Marquette, Air Force, Stanford, Arkansas, UNLV) and showed it can beat the big teams. BC's loss to UNC showed that the most important player to that team is not Jared Dudley, but Tyrese Rice. If Jarrius Jackson covers him, it's lights out.
PICK - Texas Tech

Georgetown v. Belmont: Georgetown has a much easier ride than its counterpart at the top of the bracket, and it starts with Belmont.
PICK - Georgetown

ROUND 2:

North Carolina v. Michigan State: This won't be as difficult as one might think. UNC averaged 86.3 points per game this year. Michigan State averaged 65.1 versus worse competition. Look for the score to be about that.
PICK - North Carolina

USC v. Texas: USC had no real non-conference heft outside of Kansas (and beating Wichita St. doesn't count - unless you want to count losing to Kansas St.) so this team is hard to judge. Like I said, I don't think they're very good, and overall I think Texas' talent will carry them. An easier game for Texas here than in the first round.
PICK - Texas

Vanderbilt v. Oral Roberts: Vandy should benefit from the upset here. The teams match up fairly well but Vanderbilt can score a bit better. Oral Roberts will need someone other than Green and Tutt to step up to pull off another upset, but Vandy's balance should be too much.
PICK - Vanderbilt

Texas Tech v. Georgetown: I'm not sure Texas Tech has the strength and size to compete with Green and Hibbert of Georgetown. The loss of BC's Williams will enable Tech to sneak one win, but two physical teams in a row might be too much.
PICK - Georgetown

SWEET 16:

North Carolina v. Texas: Both teams are extremely young, but both are so experienced by this point. Texas has shown it has a killer instinct when they beat the assassin himself, Acie Law, and A&M in overtime recently. However, UNC will be able to give Durant more looks than he's seen all year because of their depth, and that should give them the edge.
PICK - North Carolina

Vanderbilt v. Georgetown: These two teams squared off in November, with Georgetown winning by 16. And Georgetown got better. Yikes.
PICK - Georgetown

ELITE 8:

North Carolina v. Georgetown: The one thing UNC can do is handle Georgetown's size, and they'll be the first team to be able to do so. With Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Deon Thompson, and Alex Stepheson, the Tar Heels could counter Hibbert and Green. With their better perimeter game led by Wayne Ellington and role player (again, for the second time) Reyshawn Terry, UNC should prevail.
PICK - North Carolina

SOUTH REGION

Ohio State v. Central Connecticut State: Honestly, Ohio State couldn't have asked for a better first round matchup. The "other" Blue Devlis put pressure on the ball and can create turnovers that lead to easy buckets. If Ohio State's wing players don't help the backcourt bring the ball up, they could be vulnerable to CCSU's patented press and...
...okay, I'm kidding. Ohio State's going to kill them. Central Connecticut lost to St. Bonaventure this year.
'Nuff said.
PICK - Ohio State

BYU v. Xavier: A lot of people "want" to see Xavier win because of the Thad Motta connection. This is going to be a real tight game, but I do in fact give the edge to Xavier because of Drew Lavender's newfound leadership after transferring from Oklahoma.
PICK - Xavier

Tennessee v. Long Beach State: Long Beach State is a surprising #12 seed since their best out of conference win this year was against nobody. But they can put points on the board. Problem for them, so can Tennessee.
PICK - Tennessee

Virginia v. Albany: Yikes. I'm nervous if I'm UVA. First of all, UVA's RPI of 55 is more in the range of teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament, nevermind a #4 seed (by contrast, Southern Illinois' is 7)...so clearly, they are vulnerable. Next, they have some curious losses earlier in the year (Appalachian State and ESPECIALLY Utah by 24) which shows that their head isn't always in it. And, after earning a bye in the ACC tournament, they lost to a much hungrier NC State team after being up early. So can they get it done?
I give them one chance.
PICK - Virginia

Louisville v. Stanford: I'm not sold on Louisville, and they may have issues with Stanford's size, but I love Edgar Sosa and I'm not sure how healthy Stanford is as a team just yet. Plus, playing in Lexington shouldn't hurt.
PICK - Louisville

Texas A&M v. Pennsylvania: Penn is comparable competition to which A&M scheduled out of conference, so A&M should have no problems. Look for Josh Carter to hit about 7 threes in a pretty easy win.
PICK - Texas A&M

Nevada v. Creighton: Nick Fazekas v. Nate Funk. Whose name is cooler? I think Funk's is, but I think Nevada is the better team, even with Kyle Shiloh on the shelf. Ramon Sessions and especially Marcelus Kemp should be enough scoring support for the Wolf Pack to move on.
PICK - Nevada

Memphis v. North Texas: See the blurb on Texas A&M, but Memphis was accustomed to it all season in Conference USA. North Texas should be happy if they don't lose by 30.
PICK - Memphis

SECOND ROUND:

Ohio State v. Xavier: Greg Oden and all their perimeter shooters will be too much for the Musketeers. They make a game of it, though, and prove to doubters at ESPN that they certainly belonged in the field.
PICK - Ohio State

Tennessee v. Virginia: Virginia likely has better size than Tennessee, but I really think Chris Lofton will be the difference. Whereas Sean Singletary has the propensity to overtake games when he doesn't really have to, Lofton has the ability to win games (ask Winthrop).
PICK - Tennessee

Louisville v. Texas A&M: Texas A&M should be able to overcome Louisville's virtual homecourt advantage with better guard play. As I said, I love Sosa, but he's no Acie Law. It should be a fun 2nd round game.
PICK - Texas A&M

Nevada v. Memphis: This is where the loss of Shiloh will hurt Nevada. Memphis' depth is comparable to UNC's and Georgia Tech's, so they should be able to wear Nevada down with their pressing style that John Calipari likes to employ. Nevada could win if it's close as Memphis struggles mightily from the free throw line, but I like the higher seed here.
PICK - Memphis

SWEET 16:

Ohio State v. Tennessee: A great rematch from a fun game a couple months ago in Columbus where OSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Look for Tennessee to continue to pressure Oden like they did in the first matchup and create similar turnovers (he had a great game, but 4 turnovers among the team's 20). Also, the Volunteers should benefit from a neutral floor. If they can get more help from young big men Wayne Chism and Ryan Childress than they did in the first meeting, take the upset.
PICK - Tennessee

Texas A&M v. Memphis: The challenge here for A&M will be Memphis' depth. But, despite that depth, Memphis has a similar issue to Kansas in that it doesn't have that "go-to" player. Chris Douglas-Roberts is certainly a good player but he hasn't been asked to win close games this year. Acie Law has. And he's delivered. It won't hurt that the game is in San Antonio.
PICK - Texas A&M

Elite 8:

Tennessee v. Texas A&M: A fantastic matchup between the region's best clutch performers, Chris Lofton and Acie Law. I think A&M's defense, though, will be the difference here, as despite averaging nearly 80 points per game, Tennessee's offense has gone AWOL at times this year (like the entire Butler game). I like A&M in a great contest.
PICK - Texas A&M

FINAL FOUR:

Maryland v. UCLA: Afflalo, Shipp, and Collison should be too much for Strawberry and co. to handle, plus UCLA's big men can hang with the Terps.
PICK - UCLA

North Carolina v. Texas A&M: UNC will pass yet another test in this brutal run as A&M won't have enough offense to stick with the Tar Heels.
PICK - UNC

CHAMPIONSHIP:

UCLA v. North Carolina: UCLA won't lose back to back years. Despite the boatload of talent UNC possesses, Aaron Afflalo will be the best player on the floor, and Ty Lawson will be too tired to compete with Darren Collison after having to chase around Drew Neitzel, D.J. Augustin, and Acie Law.

WINNER: UCLA

Hope you liked this diversion from the usual stuff! I'm impressed if you can read it all! Enjoy all the games, and root for the CRUSADERS!!!